September News

CO2 leak probability vs leak rate for CCS in saline aquifers and depleted fields (from IEAGHG report 2025-01).

Great to see that the IEAGHG‘s report onReviewing the implications of unlikely but potential CO2 migration to the surface or shallow subsurface” (IEA/CON/22/287) has recently been released into the public domain – a really authoritative work that is impressive both in breadth and depth of analysis. Their analysis of leakage probability via wells and geological pathways builds on the Containment Certainty Report that we produced for DESNZ back in 2023 (see graphic above).

A really important aspect of their report is that they focus on consequences of leaks – both with respect to the materiality of an event, and also in terms of the wide range of potential leak environs (see yellow boxes in the graphic below). At 223 pages the report certainty covers a lot of ground, and in a lot of detail – a massive effort!

Graph showing the causal path from deep CO2 storage to impacted environments in the unlikely event of leakage.

Causal Network flow path for assessing environmental and health impacts of CO2 leakage for CCS (credit: IEAGHG Report 2025-01).